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EPL best bets: Finding smart wagers for Premier League's opening weekend

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 8/9/23

The English Premier League returns this weekend after a 10-week absence, with Burnley and Manchester City kicking things off on Friday before a packed weekend of games. We’ve got an unusually strong field this season, with nine teams challenging for the Top 4 before a ball has been kicked and many more capable of pulling off big surprises.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen these teams: With the season starting fresh and recent data at a minimum, where are the good bets hiding in the Premier League’s opening weekend?

Burnley vs. Manchester City. You wouldn’t normally bet against Manchester City in an opening match against a newly promoted side, but Burnley isn’t just any newly promoted side. It stormed the second division last season, winning the championship by a comfortable distance thanks to the attack-minded tactics of coach Vincent Kompany. The kicker? Kompany is an acolyte of Man City coach Pep Guardiola —fans who have been around for a while will remember Kompany captaining Guardiola’s City team just a few short years ago. These two men know each other well, and while betting on Burnley to win is a stretch, betting on it to score — with City eventually snatching the victory — is intriguing at +200.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest. Arsenal, last season’s runner-up, has had a flying preseason. It signed stars in every part of the park, from David Raya in goal to Kai Havertz in attack, and it looks to be a much stronger side than the one that pushed Manchester City to the edge last year.

Arsenal is clearly favored over Forest in this home opener, so it’s not about goals for the Gunners, it’s about who scores them. Leandro Trossard, one of the surprise hit signings of last year, is a strong choice. He's scored four goals in five in preseason play, including two against Barcelona and one against Man City that took Arsenal to the Community Shield penalty shootout. Trossard as an anytime goal scorer at +125 feels like a safe call here. And keep your eyes on him this season: he plays beautifully within coach Mikel Arteta’s system.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. These two teams are ones to watch: both improved massively in 2022-23 and both are expected to challenge the established elite for spots in the top four. They’re on very similar journeys, these two, so it’s odd that Bet365 has Newcastle as the clear favorites to win this one. Betting on Aston Villa to sneak a win at +375 is interesting, but betting on a draw — the same score these two played out in their preseason clash just a few weeks ago — is more interesting still at +260.

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