Braves Today's 2024 Atlanta Braves prospect rankings, numbers 15-11

Between the promotions of young players and the frequent trades to upgrade the major league roster, the farm system of the Atlanta Braves is widely considered to have fallen into the bottom third in baseball as far as quality and quantity.

But here at Braves Today, we're bullish on both Atlanta's talent in the minor leagues and the organization's reputation and track record of developing that talent.

We just updated our farm system rankings for the 2024 season; here's our scouting profiles for numbers 15 through 11 on the list, headlined by someone who is already an MLB contributor in Darius Vines.

(Criteria used for prospect eligibility is: less than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the MLB roster)

#15: RHP Garrett Baumann

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 4 (Prep)
2023 Production: 1G (Single-A Augusta): 2 IP, 1H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1K

Scouting report: Baumann's a monster physically, coming in at 6'8 and 245 pounds, and you can see that mass in his fastball velocity, which touched 97 in his brief pro debut. It's an interesting shape, coming in with more horizontal movement than carry up in the zone, but still a potent offering that can miss bats. He throws a slider and a changeup, both sitting in the same velocity band (low-80s), with the changeup ahead of the inconsistent slider at the moment. 

Atlanta obviously feels like the stuff is good enough to be competitive right away, as he made his only appearance post-draft in Single-A Augusta instead of at the complex, and I'm curious to see how quickly he moves through the system if he comes out firing to open 2024.   

#14: RHP Darius Vines

Entry to the organization: 2019 MLB Draft, Round 7 (Cal State - Bakersfield)
2023 Production: 6 AAA games (5 starts): 3-2, 2.36 ERA in 34.1 IP w/ 28 Ks (7.3 K/9) to 13 BBs (3.4 BB/9), 5 HRs (1.3 HR/9)
5 MLB games (2 starts): 1-0, 3.98 ERA in 20.1 IP w/ 14 Ks (6.2 K/9), 7 BBs (3.1 BB/9), 3 HRs (1.3 HR/9) 

Scouting report: Vines, another Bakersfield (CA) guy like Allan Winans, also played a similar role as a spot starter down the stretch for Atlanta, opening eyes in his MLB debut by going into Colorado's Coors Field and holding the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings for the win. While the fastball velocity isn't particularly impressive - just 90 mph - it plays well up in the strike zone (thanks to it's above-average 17 inches of IVB) and liberal usage of a great low-80s changeup and a cutter, a pitch he added in the 2023 season. He also has a slider that gets decent results, despite being a clear 4th pitch. 

It's not a package that'll overwhelm many hitters, but the combination of the sequencing and his plus control makes it good enough to turn over a lineup once or twice and provide value as a long reliever (which he did three times in the majors) or a spot starter.   

#13: 3B/SS Sebin Ceballos

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 3 (University of Oregon)
2023 Production: 14 Rk/A G: .300/.400/.375 w/ 1 Hr, 1 XBH, 9 BBs to 14 Ks, 0/1 SBs 

Scouting report: Ceballos won a Rawlings Gold Glove in college for his work at third base for Oregon, and those defensive chops prompted Atlanta to draft him early on day two. He'll reportedly be spending more time at shortstop in 2024, a valuable adjustment that would make him much more viable as a big-leaguer if he can make the transition. In college, his hit tool flashed, with a 91% zone-contact rate and less than 20% chase, but the exit velocities (even with a metal bat) were below-average and don't portend well for even average power production as a professional.  

His plus arm should allow Ceballos to survive as a range-limited shortstop with good hands, similar to current shortstop Orlando Arcia, should the transition work. If not, he's got a fallback as a high average, lower power third base option, an atypical profile that can still be valuable in certain situations.      

#12: RHP Jhancarlos Lara

Entry to the organization: 2021 IFA
2023 Production: 20 A/A+ games (15 starts): 4-8, 4.09 ERA in 81.1 IP w/ 114 Ks (12.6 K/9), 42 BBs (4.6 BB/9), 6 HRs (0.7 HR/9)

Scouting report: Lara was older than your typical DSL participant in 2022, at the age of 19, but his performance was exceptional for any age - a 1.78 ERA in ten appearances. While the stats for his first seasons stateside weren't as good as the DSL, he certainly improved as a pitcher, "flipping a switch" in late June and dominating down the stretch. Lara makes it worth mostly from a power look, with a fastball in the upper-90s with good (not great) carry up in the zone and a hard slider in the upper-80s. 

Developmental keys for this season will be both sharpening and better incorporating the changeup, which he flashed on occasion in 2023 but still threw less than 10% of the time, as well as the standard command and control improvements that all young pitchers need to show after they've physically acclimated to full-season ball.   

#11: RHP Drue Hackenberg

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 2 (Virginia Tech)
2023 Production: 3 A/AA starts: 0-0, 1.42 ERA in 6.1 IP w/ 13 Ks, 6 BBs, 1 HR

Scouting report: Hackenberg might be a sinker/slider guy with questionable college results, but he could potentially be the best version of a sinker/slider guy, and that's why the Braves went out and got him in the 2nd round, paying him overslot to sign. 

Hackenberg's sinker had almost a foot and a half of armside run in college last season, where most MLB sinkers sit around 10 inches or so. The slider sits in the mid-80s and, while the shape isn't always consistent, the two pitches combine for a groundball rate of over 50%, giving Hackenberg a look of potentially a better Bryce Elder. Key to improving is going to be consistency in the slider - does he want it to generate more swing-and-miss, as the sweepier version did in college, or maintain its shape as a groundball inducing option and possible improve the (currently lefty-only) changeup to better generate whiffs?  

(Special thanks to our friends over at Locked On MLB Prospects for their help with this list - check them out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.)

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